Pali Lehohla
South Africa at 30 reminds me of the discussion I held with the late Dr Vuyo Mahlathi in 2018. Among other achievements, Mahlati was the president of the African Farmers Association of SA, a member of South Africa’s National Planning Commission and chaired the Presidential Advisory Panel on Land Reform and Agriculture. The discussion was about Msinga, a village in KwaZulu-Natal. The story of South Africa at 30 is captured in Genesis 41:1-57, where Pharaoh had two dreams.
In one dream, seven fattened cows emerged from the Nile, only to be replaced by seven lean ones. The second dream featured seven plump heads of wheat followed by seven undernourished ones. Pharaoh asked Joseph to interpret these dreams. Joseph told Pharaoh, "Your Majesty, seven years of pestilence and hunger will follow seven years of plenty."
Learning this, Pharaoh tasked Joseph with collecting and storing the abundance to prepare for the lean years.
South Africa at ten was confronted by this very scenario of Pharaoh’s dreams. In 2005, midway through a good run under the Memories of the Future Scenario, we paused for a reset to contemplate what South Africa would be like in 2025. Under the Future We Chose Scenarios, South Africa was seen as a country bargaining across three grim options – a beauty contest of the ugly. And alas, we settled for the worst-case scenario, Muvhango.
With these scenarios outlined in 2007, as we transitioned into the fourth administration, the new Pharaoh lacked a Joseph to prepare South Africa for the lean years. Worse still, under the Indlulamithi Scenarios, we have not only slipped into Gwara-Gwara but have plunged into the Vulture Nation Scenario, marked today by the worst annual growth rate in 2024 at 0.6%. Yet, some nuggets of wisdom needed for this preparation abounded in the pre-1994 period.
This is the story of 2018 that I shared with Dr Mahlathi. I often reflect on these stories, as I did with the then Secretary General of the ANC, Gwede Mantashe, in 2010. That was a tale of agricultural activity in the Eastern Cape, marked by aberrations that defied explanation.
I pointed out to Mantashe that employment figures in agriculture for the same season swung between booms and busts without clear reason. He offered insights I’ll never forget. He said to me, "In the last season, the maize harvest pushed the natives out of their rondavels, and there was no need to plant the next season because there’d be no storage for the next harvest." Mantashe made a true observation, but one that was certainly characteristic of a classic failure of a Pharaoh without a Joseph.
A Joseph would advocate for the construction of roads, storage capacity, and a network of mills to grind the harvest, thus preparing for lean years while keeping economic activity at a high level.
Msinga shows the way
Back to the story of Msinga with Mahlathi. I told her about the gains Msinga had made, moving from being the poorest, with 60% of its population in poverty in 2001, down to 37% by 2011, and further reduced by 13 percentage points in half the time to 24% by 2016.
Msinga had arguably made the greatest strides and not only enjoyed the gains of democracy as a free people but also witnessed substantive democracy. This unfolded while a third of municipalities fell backwards into poverty by 2016. I observed how Msinga, the poorest of all municipalities in South Africa, achieved such sustained gains.
Mahlathi then reflected on the violence in Msinga in the pre-1994 period and the grassroots work she undertook with figures like Dr Brigalia Bam. She spoke in vivid detail about the violence, describing how women hid AK-47s under their dresses and would ask for more ammunition in exchange for the unique and colourful regalia they offered Mahlathi and her team.
She recalled confronting the late Prime Minister of the King about the violence. She rightly concluded that the efforts of churches and everyone involved in Msinga might have enabled it to become the municipality that, despite its grinding poverty, sustained the fight against it and displayed the greatest gains.
With the loss of gains in the past 15 years and counting, set against the progress of the first 15 years, the nuggets of wisdom lie in the silent places where Mahlathi rests and where the living, like Mantashe, remain. It is these Josephs we should turn to for better solutions to the plight of the poor in South Africa. Msinga has shown remarkable resilience against the poverty that defined it at the start of 2000.
Leadership is needed
Our country of halves at 30 needs a Joseph to lay bare the technical details and a Pharaoh who will act responsibly as a leader. Without technical competence and bold, decisive leadership, South Africa faces another 30 years of struggle. Will the national dialogue serve as the mirror to reflect the quality of leadership we’ve had and what must be done about it?
Morena Mohlomi, the founder of the Ngoliloe Academy in what was then Lesotho, offers wise words that resonate three centuries later. He said, "A responsible leader pursues peaceful and productive alliances, accommodates stakeholders, and uses new instruments of power to create intergenerational value."
Mohlomi’s Mirror should guide us in assessing whether we have responsible leaders.
Dr Pali Lehohla is a Professor of Practice at the University of Johannesburg, a Research Associate at Oxford University, a board member of the Institute for Economic Justice at Wits, and a distinguished alumnus of the University of Ghana. He is the former Statistician-General of South Africa.
** The views expressed here do not necessarily represent those of Independent Media or IOL.
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