London - It has been trumpeted as the ‘COP of Africa’ – the occasion of the 27th Conference of the Parties (COP27) under the aegis of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
That it is taking place in Africa in Sharm El Sheikh in Egypt, one of the top three economies and the largest emitter of greenhouse gases on the Continent, over the next 13 days from 6-18 November 2022, may give the impression that Africa finally may get a say at the top table of the global climate crisis discourse.
Never mind the fact that Africa with the lowest carbon footprint is also one of the most severely affected by the disruptions caused by catastrophic climate and environmental events such as floods, droughts and pests, and geopolitical events such as conflict, and their impacts on the various socio-economic sectors – energy and food security, infrastructure, and health systems.
So, will it be a lucky 13 days for Climate Action, Mitigation, Adaptation and Finance?
In contrast to the optimism and raised expectations of COP26 in Glasgow in 2021, which, by the way, was misplaced and reduced Alok Sharma, the UK President of COP26, to tears for failing to get key countries to sign up to the target of limiting global warming to 1.5°C, over the short term, to phase out subsidies for fossil fuels and commit more climate adaptation funds, including for climate related loss and damage, especially to the poorer nations, COP27 is already in danger of turning out to be an own goal!
Hardly had the jamboree in the Red Sea resort begun, expectations of any major decisions on climate action in Sharm El Sheikh have already been dampened.
Among the posturing, the rhetoric of aspiration and the little steps of progress, the mood music is changing to a creeping resignation that at best the gains made at COP27 will be largely procedural.
Colleagues of mine who are already in Sharm El Sheikh are alluding to the over-bearing bureaucracy and security which has effectively separated the VIPs and speakers into ‘a Blue Zone’, away from interaction with other key stakeholders. Surely the very raison d’etre of the COPS is for ALL stakeholders, including activists, to discuss, argue about, exchange or reject ideas and hopefully build some semblance of a consensus to deal with the defining challenge facing humanity in a safe and open environment?
Many climate activists including Greta Thunberg, NGOs and community leaders won’t even get a look in, stressing that attending Sharm El Sheikh is an exercise in futility which merely reinforces national, corporate and institutional self-interest of the key actors.
Cynicism of the whole process is rife. With world leaders, dignitaries, celebrities and the cornucopia of attendees clocking up the carbon miles just getting to COP27, the integrity of its very processes is at stake.
The danger is that of greenwashing both the form, substance and integrity of COP27. Complexities notwithstanding, Africa can do without such hubris!
The wisdom of holding such a global event in a country ruled by a military-led regime, headed by General Abdel Fattah El Sisi, has already attracted the opprobrium of international human rights groups and Egyptian democracy activists, who are protesting in cities across many countries against the regime’s violations against human rights and freedom of speech.
Amidst the current geopolitical and economic volatility and uncertainties the world is faced with, one of the perversities of the Climate Action discourse is the inherent and inevitable political and economic dichotomies embedded, which makes the task of transition, mitigation, adaptation and finance that more onerous and costly.
This must not detract from the brilliant work done by cohorts of scientists and UN and international agencies led by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) which, in its mitigation to climate change report in June, concluded that the world is not on track to limit global warming to 1.5°C or even 2°C.
Moreover, the IPCC’s latest report shows that there are options available now in all sectors that can at least halve emissions by 2030.
John Kerry, US Special Climate Envoy, in London on his way to Egypt, was more subdued in his COP messaging.
The world's wealthier countries need to "step up" to help poorer nations transition away from fossil fuels and adapt to the impact of climate change.
"Those countries with greater means across the board - and that includes some developing countries that have greater means,” he told BBC radio, “need to also step up and help in this transition.
We are going to view it as our efforts to try to help countries to adapt, to be able to become more resilient and obviously address the challenges that they face as a result of the losses and damages.”
He had a stark message for the supporters of the fossil fuel industry.
"There are people within the fossil fuel industry who are using the crisis in Ukraine, frankly, as leverage to be able to say 'We need to be pumping a lot more. We're moving much too fast'.
It's just not true, it's not an accurate narrative."
Last year in Glasgow, Kerry warned about the “insanity” of subsidising the fossil fuel industry to the tune of US$2.5 trillion over the past few years.
There are several insanities piling up in Sharm El Sheikh – global uncertainties, disruptions, inaction, delays, reverting to fossil fuel norms, underfunding and unkept pledges. Will COP27 see ‘a bonfire of the insanities?’
For Dr Mahmoud Mohieldin, UN Climate Change High-Level Champion for COP27, the task is simple:
“We are at an inflection point in the global race to a climate-resilient and sustainable future: the point where the surge of commitments, ambition, initiatives, and promises made in recent years meets the real test of implementation.
The climate action agenda has transformed since the 2015 Paris Agreement, with pledges to reach net zero emissions by 2050.
“But greenhouse gas emissions have yet to fall, while the impacts of climate change are worsening.
For many especially in developing and emerging economies, there is an urgency to adapt and build resilience to impacts such as droughts, floods, extreme heat and wildfires – while growing sustainably.”
Parker is an economist and writer based in London
Cape Times