By Farouk Araie
The comments of famous geologist Chris le Roux regarding the Bree Street underground explosion should serve as a wake-up call to the residents of Gauteng and the ANC government.
Gauteng sits on a precipice with frightening ramifications or its 16 million inhabitants. The province is geologically unstable and is seismically in the cross-hairs of a major earthquake that could devastate the area in a 200km radius.
The last earthquake which shook and terrified the province was a massive shake-up of the Earth’s crust. The exact cause has not yet been established. The June 11 quake, which was a magnitude 4.4 event, made the likelihood of a much bigger seismic event a distinct possibility.
We will in the near future witness a 5- to 6-magnitude quake whose consequences will reverberate across the province on a massive scale.
Mining-induced tremors and the constant use of explosives by zama-zamas exacerbate and quantify the geological perils that lie ahead. At this critical juncture we are totally ill-prepared to face a crisis of M6 magnitude.
The possible gas blast that tore up the streets of Johannesburg demonstrated in 3D the monumental power of gas-induced blasts. Monitoring and maintaining various underground fuel/gas/water and sewerage pipelines that run underneath Johannesburg and its vast geographical areas is cause for concern.
The explosion must have massively disturbed the Earth’s crust and possibly damaged the integrity of pipelines in the epicentre of the explosion, raising the frightening possibility of another explosion of an even greater magnitude.
Unless we are adequately prepared for catastrophic events, natural and unnatural, the human costs will be frightening.
A South African Institution of Civil Engineering (SAICE) 2022 infrastructure report card (IRC) said that in 2022, the overall grade for South Africa’s public infrastructure declined further to D, the lowest grade ever recorded by SAICE, “which is of great concern”.
Sixteen years ago, the first IRC gave the nation’s infrastructure an overall grade of D+.
Because of mining and a combination of other historical factors, Gauteng’s geological structure is no longer solidified.
Any major imbalance in its volatile crust will have immense and shattering consequences for all its inhabitants and the huge industries that are the lifeblood of the economy.
Those who serve in the corridors of power need to urgently formulate civil defence plans to be prepared when earth-shattering events overwhelm us without prior warning. The cost of complacency will be astronomical.
Cape Times
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