Durban — The scramble for the deputy presidency of the ANC is set to take an unprecedented turn as more than eight candidates appear to be raising their hands to take up the position.
While some of these are senior leaders set to slug it out in a race for the position, analysts warn of deepened factions, divisions, infighting, and loss of a support base as more heavyweights of the governing party throw their hats into the ring for the post.
The 55th national elective conference is expected to turn into a battleground as prominent leaders vie to sit at the top table and possibly be among the top six.
With previous conferences known for sowing division as ambitious leaders clashed and the plots against each other thickened, independent political analysts have raised concern about the increased number of senior leaders with ambitions to lead.
Among those tipped to be in line for the deputy president’s position and be in the thick of the thunderous battle at the 55th conference are ANC treasurer-general Paul Mashatile, Justice and Correctional Services Minister Ronald Lamola, Minister of Human Settlements Mmamoloko Kubayi, Defence and Military Veterans Minister Thandi Modise, ANC national executive committee member Jeff Radebe and current deputy president David Mabuza.
Senior lecturer at the University of Limpopo, Dr Metji Makgoba said among those vying for the position, Mabuza appeared to be weak.
“In the last elective conference, we saw things we had never seen before; those individuals do not believe that the deputy president had long-term plans, and they might be afraid to contest the sitting president, so they are being cautious so that they don’t go toe-to-toe against a president who is already tipped for a second term.
“These candidates see that maybe they can postpone their ambitions, for now; they fear they may lose hopelessly. They may be surprised to think that the deputy president has no aspirations or plan.”
Makgoba said that although the deputy president may have lost support in parts of the country, he still had support in his home province, Mpumalanga.
“I think he has a plan, he could easily try to reclaim his strength, but it would be a difficult task. Those aspirant people vying for the deputy president position are clearly taking advantage of his weakness … they see him as being weak, and maybe they want to capitalise on that.
“In general terms, they see that challenging Ramaphosa with all his financial muscle may be costly for them. Ramaphosa has also established support across the country,” he said.
Independent political analyst and professor at Unisa, Tumi Senokoane, said that the deputy president position appeared to be vacant because of Mabuza's absence at times.
“Everyone suddenly has ambition because they see that the future of the president is not so clear due to Phala Phala, where Ramaphosa has been found wanting. If he was forced to step aside, the deputy president would automatically have to take over. So this has created an ‘if’ environment.
“This ‘if’ environment provides a possibility that if a criminal case succeeds then the deputy president will naturally take over,” said Senokoane.
Senokoane said the other reason for the huge interest might be that those with ambitions were aware the days of the governing party as leaders in government were numbered, and they wanted their share of the pie before the end.
Lamola, a former deputy president of the ANC Youth League, threw his hat into the ring for the position at the beginning of the year when the party was celebrating its 110th anniversary in Polokwane.
In June, Lamola spoke at the Walter Sisulu memorial lecture hosted by the Ehlanzeni region in his home province and indicated that he was prepared to deputise, challenging those who said he was too young to lead.
“The reality is that historically the ANC became highly effective when young people like Walter Sisulu, Lilian Ngoyi, and Oliver Tambo took the responsibility of leading this organisation after it had become moribund,” Lamola said.
Earlier this month, the ANC’s Moloto Tambane branch in Protea South in Soweto endorsed Kubayi to enter the ring, with the branch chairperson Ester Maema and Pinkie Numa from greater Johannesburg’s Young Women’s Desk of the ANC Women’s League asserting that Kubayi was their preferred candidate.
A source in Luthuli House said Mashatile, former minister in the presidency Radebe and former speaker of the National Assembly Modise, are said to hold the ambition to lead and that some within the party’s headquarters were whispering their names, as being among the contestants.
“They are scared to come out and publicly confirm their desire to be in the top six. It makes sense because there’s a lot going on at the moment and they don’t want to be aligned with the existing factions. As for Mashatile, everybody knows that he works with DD (Mabuza) and we believe they want to align themselves and emerge together,” said the source.
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