As Africans concerned about an equitable, just and fair world order, and our continent’s place in such an order, we have followed with concern the events in Ukraine, and between Russia, Ukraine and Nato.
The expansion of Nato since the late 1990s, the subsequent deterioration of relations between Russia and Nato and the escalation of conflict in Eastern Ukraine since 2014 have now culminated into a full-blown military conflict. We are concerned about the broad contours of the Russia-Ukraine-Nato conflict, including the aggressive rhetoric and actions of the US, and the implications of these events for Africa.
The Russia-Ukraine-Nato conflict will have far-reaching ramifications for the world at large, including Africa. We have a responsibility to mobilise progressive African thought leaders to debate the short, medium and long-term implications of this conflict for Africa.
Concerned Africans, including CAF, and all progressive thought leaders on the continent, must be the vanguard of untangling these developments.
At the base of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is the determination of the US and its allies to ensure acceptance by Russia of the global hegemony of the US in particular, and therefore Western imperialism in general.
Without this, the conflict was easily avoidable with the undertaking by Nato that, out of respect for Russia’s security concerns, it would not admit Ukraine as a member.
Accepting the Russian concerns in this regard, belatedly Ukraine has now agreed that it will remain a militarily neutral country and therefore will not seek Nato membership. This position, however, appears to fluctuate depending on the conditions on the ground and statements by the EU and the US.
It is possible that the US and the West knew that Nato expansion and Ukraine's rhetoric on Nato membership would provoke Russia. An information campaign may have deliberately escalated the conflict, believing that this would give the US the possibility to punish Russia for "invading Ukraine’ in such a manner that Russia would finally accept living under the US prescription that “no regional hegemony should emerge, especially in Eurasia, to challenge US interests”.
US and Western opposition to Russia as a ‘strategic opponent’ has therefore come to be defined within a broader context of the need to maintain the global unipolar hegemony of the US. Not surprisingly China, India and other countries of the South have come out with tacit support for Russia as it insists and sacrifices in favour of a system of international relations based on multi-polarity and multilateralism.
It is in this context that the US and its allies appear to have little prospect of stopping Russia from achieving its strategic objectives in the military conflict with Ukraine, including efforts to ensure the permanent prohibition of Ukraine from membership in Nato.
Russia, China and others will read this success as an important victory against the hegemonic intentions of the US. Accordingly, the near and medium-term future will confront the world with a multi-faceted global conflict as the US and its allies, on one hand, and Russia and its allies and friends on the other, a battle to redefine the system of international relations represented by the contest between unipolar domination and multi-polar, multi-lateral voluntary cooperation.
As concerned Africans, we are of the view that the Russian Federation, Ukraine and Nato member states must enter into immediate, good faith discussions and dialogue that would lead to a cessation of hostilities, and lasting agreements on the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, as well as addressing the legitimate security concerns of Russia.
The security arrangements proposed by Russia in 2021 could form the basis for these discussions.
We are of the view that the United Nations could play a pivotal role in such talks, in efforts to find lasting solutions to the crisis, which has global ramifications for all, including Africa.
The talks should address both recent developments and historical issues that gave rise to the conflict. All parties should avoid the temptation of pushing for a zero-sum solution that only addresses their own interest and should instead focus on a solution that addresses common and mutual concerns.
Africa will have to define its role and place in the context of this new reality. The continent will have to determine what contribution it should make with regard to this historic task.
It will be important not to fall into the trap of treating such consequences of the Russia/Ukraine conflict as the current higher oil and food prices and their impact on Africa as being the principal matters to which Africa must respond.
The US, Nato and its allies have taken steps to ensure that by banning the communication of the Russian view globally, through the prohibitions on Russia Today, Sputnik and others, imposed by institutions such as YouTube, Facebook and Twitter, the world has access only and exclusively to the extremely and deliberately partisan Western point of view about everything relating to the Russia/Ukraine conflict and much else.
Progressive African thought leaders will need to ensure that none of their views and actions is conditioned by this exclusive Western narrative.
This is a critical moment for African leadership to take the initiative in marshalling our governments, our institutions and our people to prepare for the strategic navigation that will be required to sail the rough seas that lie ahead.
Resilient forms of organisation will be required and stronger alliances will have to be forged in order to protect and realise the shared vision we have for our continent. With great change comes great risk, but also an enormous opportunity.
Tapping into this opportunity and mitigating the risks on the horizon will require the undivided attention of the entire continent and progressive forces around the world.
* Concerned Africans Forum is chaired by Mongane Wally Serote.