Kenneth Mokgatlhe
It is no surprise that the two black largest political formations in South Africa, ANC, and EFF, have declared that they will host their 2024 manifesto rallies at Durban’s Moses Mabhida Stadium early next year.
Despite its shocking political intolerance incidents such as killings of politicians, KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) remains an important political capital in the country’s political landscape due to being the second most populated province in the country.
The ANC, EFF, and DA know that the province is not only the second-largest populated province in the country, it is also the second largest economy after Gauteng which contributes around 16% towards the country’s gross domestic product (GDP). The fight for KZN’s vote makes political sense for every political party contesting for political power in the country.
Kwazulu-Natal has what is termed “floating voters”, an electorate characterised by the potential to adjust to new political trends. It is understood that when Jacob Zuma became the ANC leader in 2007 following the party’s national elections in Polokwane, many people switched from the IFP to join the ANC and the the province became the one with the largest membership base for the party.
The EFF is continuing to spread its wings and brand itself as a party for all with a national footprint. The ANC has always had an electoral advantage because it had a presence in every part of the country, however, the EFF’s arrival threatened its popularity by even taking appealing to other African countries such as Namibia, Botswana and Zimbabwe for support.
One of the principal factors that encourage the EFF and ANC to host their political rallies in Durban is also the fact that this is going to be the first election without the IFP’s stalwart Prince Mangosuthu Buthelezi.
The truth of the matter is that the IFP is a regional political formation that has a large following in the KZN and Gauteng. The IFP does not have a charismatic leader who will appeal to the electorate, hence the suggestion by some in the party to use the late Buthelezi’s image for campaigning.
Another important factor is the fact that the DA’s uMgeni mayor, Christopher Pappas, has created a panic among the parties, especially the ANC at Luthuli House. Pappas does not only speak IsiZulu but he strikes many as an honest and ethical leader who people are so desperate to have as their premier.
Zuma and his supporters are feeling annihilated and isolated by the ANC under Cyril Ramaphosa. So we do not expect Zuma and his sympathisers to go all out to look for ANC’s votes, that won’t happen. The supporters of the former eThekwini mayor, Zandile Gumede, who is facing corruption charges will not be working for the ANC as they believe that their leader is being persecuted for her factional position.
The ANC needs to remember how it was able to keep Gauteng in its pocket during the 2019 general elections. The party should be focusing on improving its support in Gauteng rather than attempting to save what it literally cannot. The ANC can lose its outright majority in KZN and Gauteng provinces. The ANC has given up its failed attempts to have the Western Cape under its arms. It is now quite clear that the “Capetonians” prefer the DA over the ANC.
The ANC understands that the Limpopo, North West, Northern Cape, Mpumalanga, Free State, and Eastern Cape are largely conservative provinces which will most probably re-elect them into political offices despite its inferior service delivery. The people from these provinces would rather vote for a known enemy rather than a strange enemy.
They still have hope that the ANC is the liberator and can to rescue them from hunger, poverty, thirst and illiteracy. Others believe that the ANC is doing them a big favour by giving away social grants and they are afraid of losing this state social welfare should they vote against the party that brought them democracy.
Therefore, we will see political formations investing more in KZN and Gauteng, including newcomers such as Herman Mashaba’s ActionSA or Gayton McKenzie’s Patriotic Alliance. It is so surprising that even small parties such as the PAC, Azapo, or UDM will invest their small resources to get a stake in Gauteng and KZN which are highly contested by bigger political actors. It would make sense for these small parties to invest their resources in the provinces or areas that the ANC, EFF, and DA are ignoring such as the Northern Cape or North West where the ANC is the sole, dominant player.
Mokgatlhe is a columnist and political writer. He is currently doing his Master of Arts in African Studies at the Israel-based Ben Gurion University.
The Star