IT HAS become very clear that the African National Congress (ANC) and the Democratic Alliance (DA) cannot resolve their fundamental disagreements. Like a married couple that cites irreconcilable differences for divorce, this political marriage appears headed for a nasty breakup.
The failure of these two political parties to rise above narrow partisan interests now threatens the survival of the government of national unity (GNU) less than a year after its formation.
But wait a minute, the post-apartheid South Africa is a product of the compromises and negotiations of the early 1990s between the National Party government and the ANC. It would help both the ANC and the DA to borrow a page from the early 1990s negotiations playbook
Back then, South Africa was on the brink of a civil war. It took the political maturity, statesmanship, and I dare say, patriotism of the ANC and the National Party to reach a ‘political solution.’ The lesson here is that resolving political conflict takes compromise, conciliation, and negotiation.
We find ourselves yet again at a crossroads where two of the largest political parties, the ANC and the DA are expected to set aside their narrow partisan interests to save the GNU from collapsing. Both sides have pledged to make sure that the country does not end up in an undesirable and bad place. The GNU is barely hanging together as the political chess game between the ANC and the DA appears to get out of control. It is as if the GNU partners waited for the honeymoon period to be over to take off their gloves.
In the latest tit-for-tat move, the DA voted against the budget and has approached the courts to challenge the fiscal framework and revenue proposals. This move suggests that the DA has lost all confidence in the GNU’s processes of conflict resolution. Speaking of the budget vote, it would be interesting to know how many members of Parliament (MPs) are equipped to make budget decisions.
The future of the GNU is hanging in the balance. There are growing fears that the GNU’s collapse would be disastrous for our economy, the project of racial reconciliation, and political stability. Both the ANC and the DA are under immense pressure to save the GNU, as is currently constructed, to avoid plunging the economy into a worse situation.
The pressure to save the GNU stems, in large part, from the business community which lost confidence in the inept ANC government and now hopes to see the GNU take South Africa in the right direction. Since the formation of the GNU, there has been renewed investor confidence, markets are attracting billions in capital inflows, and economic sentiment is improving.
Yet there is no glimmer of hope that this (polygamous) political marriage can be fixed or that it will work well in the future. Political marriages between political parties with divergent ideologies are very difficult to manage. This is the reason why this stormy relationship is set to continue as long as the ANC and the DA are in the GNU.
So far, GNU partners appear obsessed with putting their narrow partisan interests ahead of the country’s interests. What this means is that the eyes of our elected representatives are off the ball, that is, they are not prioritizing the interests of the country in their modus operandi. The big question now is: will the GNU survive ahead of the local government elections in 2026?
The survival of the GNU hinges upon the political maturity, patriotism, and ethical leadership of political parties. Sadly, they appear reluctant to embrace these values so far.
Initially, the ANC and the DA were supposed to be the only two coalition partners but the ANC insisted on inviting smaller political parties to join the coalition. The biggest fear of the ANC was that working with the DA would be perceived as colluding with whites. The ANC feared that its main competitors, the Umkhonto Wesizwe (MKp) and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), would accuse it of selling out and sleeping with the enemy.
The ANC won the first round by coopting smaller parties such as the Inkatha Freedom (IFP), the United Democratic Movement (UDM), the Patriotic Alliance (PA), and the Pan Africanist Congress (PAC) to become part of what became known as the GNU. In this way, the ANC neutralized and prevented the DA from occupying many Cabinet posts and having much influence. It is these smaller parties that have helped the ANC to pass some controversial legislation. With less than a year since the formation of the GNU, its main partners, the ANC and the DA, have publicly squabbled over the direction they want South Africa to take.
The DA vehemently opposed the BELA bill; the NHI bill; the Expropriation bill, and lately, the budget. The disagreements between the ANC and the DA also extend to foreign policy towards the conflict in the Middle East, the raging war between Russia and Ukraine, and policy towards the United States.
GNU partners have struggled to resolve internal conflicts because of their preoccupation with narrow partisan interests. In this game of political chess, foreseeing future moves is said to be the basis of victory. The victory here is electoral strength and relevance in an age of coalitions. As political parties compete for the market share of the voting population, the game of political chess appears to put partisanship ahead of the national interest.
The DA is painfully aware that should it leave the GNU, then this would open the door for the MKp and the EFF to replace it. It is not in the interest of the DA to see the MKp and the EFF join the GNU. After all, opening the door for the MKp and/or the EFF to join the GNU would be tantamount to giving the factions of the ANC another opportunity to regroup within the GNU.
It should be remembered that the leaders of the MKp and the EFF are former leaders of the ANC who were expelled following factional battles. Jacob Zuma of the MKp and Julius Malema of the EFF did not leave the ANC because they disagreed with the ANC’s policies, modus operandi, and its ideological orientation.
If the GNU collapses, it would mean that our economy is set to face harder times and so would be our political stability. What the collapse of the GNU would also signal is that our project of racial reconciliation is not making progress. Should the DA and the FF+ leave the GNU, accountability mechanisms would weaken further. The result is that corruption, incompetence, and mismanagement of the economy we saw between 1994 and 2024 will flourish.
South Africa is in serious trouble right now because of the ANC’s bad management of our economy. Renowned economist, Dawie Roodt, warns that South Africa’s fiscal trajectory is ‘unsustainable’ as the government spends too much on ‘non-productive’ things. Roodt notes that around 65% of government spending is consumed by public sector salaries, debt-service costs, and social grants.
Today, South Africa faces immense challenges. The number of citizens dependent on social grants continues to rise. South African families are drowning in debt, and the cost of living is suffocating. Yet the ANC intends to raise the VAT instead of trimming the bloated executive branch of government. In addition, the ANC needs to deal with the escalating public sector wage bill which mainly goes towards rewarding comrades deployed.
It is ironic for a party that claims to represent the poor and the working class to want to increase the VAT and make life more miserable for the poor.
Zakhele Collision Ndlovu is a political analyst at the University of KwaZulu-Natal.
** The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of IOL or Independent Media.